Gold News Update - 25 September 2018

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade Date: September 24th

COMMENTS:
XAU/USD posted a Doji candlestick yesterday (an upper and lower shadow with virtually the same opening and closing price, signaling investor indecision at present levels), thereby affirming the stance that respecting the now well established sideways trading range and selling rallies / buying dips as appropriate remains the prudent course of action. XAU/USD remains stuck within the broader sideways trading range between the Aug 24th low at USD 1183.20 and the Aug 28th high at USD 1214.85. XAU/USD needs a close above the 55 Day moving average at USD 1208.25 and more importantly, a move and close above the downtrend / resistance line (USD 1221.05) which has remained undefeated since gold began its retreat in mid-April, before thoughts of consistently higher levels can be entertained.

COMMENTS:
XAU/AUD bounced nicely off the 1643.70 level yesterday, and whilst the sequence of lower highs that commenced on Sept 13th continued, the sequence of lower lows was ended. A move (and preferably close) above yesterday’s high at 1658.10, would go a long way towards supporting the favoured view that XAU/AUD will make further attempts at trendline resistance (1687.50) and the technically significant 200 Day moving average (1691.10). To the downside, a major level of support is seen at the AUD 1635.85 / 1636.85 region (August 28th low and 61.8% Fib of 1605.10 > 1688.20) and dip buying on any further weakness into the 1636 to 1643.70 zone remains preferred (on the proviso that tight protective stop losses are in place just beneath the August 28th low, given that there is little by way of technical support until the August 16th low (AUD 1605.10) should AUD 1635.00 break).
 

COMMENTS:        
XAG/USD took another brief peek above its 21 Day moving average yesterday but was still unable to post a close above there. Formidable resistances remain in play at USD 14.7475, and near USD 14.8975 / 15.00 (55 Day moving average & August 28th high) and these need to be cleared before any downside risk back to the Sep 11th low at USD 13.9375 can be negated. Arguments in favour of the white metal are the magnitude of the move since mid-June, the technical significance of the USD 13.6475 level (having not been broken since December 2015) and current market positioning, which on balance, should see silver finding some friends amongst investors again soon. Additionally, the more sensitive 5 & 21 Day moving averages are close to crossing (confirmation required!) which would augur well for a sustained tilt at the upside levels. To the downside, a significant break and close beneath USD 13.6475, opens the way to 9 year lows.
 

COMMENTS:
The technical support line at AUD 19.54 (dating back to April 2016) has proved resilient for the sixth day this month but XAG/AUD remains wedged between that level and its 21 Day moving average (AUD 19.8175). A ‘long-legged’ Doji candlestick was posted yesterday (a long upper and lower shadow with virtually the same opening and closing price, signaling investor indecision at present levels) and thus, this market remains a “wait and see” proposition with little other than the presently solid support at AUD 19.54 to suggest that an interim low might be in place. A break beneath AUD 19.54 opens the way to the April 1st 2016 low at AUD 19.32

Kind regards,
Andre