Market Updates

Gold posted a massive 28.5% return for the 2019/2020 financial year, with silver a more than respectable 20.1%, but its 45 year compounded per annum return is also impressive.

‎It is now time to leave the stock market party before the bubble blows. Yield breakdown is driving gold says Nick Frappell and professor shows that gold worked to reduce portfolio risk in the 1930s.

Equity prices are insanely disconnected from their underlying fundamentals and in “La la land” according to Crescat Capital. Jeremy Grantham agrees saying that he is increasingly confident that stocks are “the fourth ‘Real McCoy’ bubble of my investment career” and that the recent price action is “crazy stuff”.

Digital Finance Analytics estimates that the percentage of households in mortgage stress reached 37.5%, or 1.42 million households.

Gold recovered this week but looking back a few months it is still bound within a $1,680/$1,750 channel. Silver has had a strong recovery from its COVID bottom in March and is sitting around the mid-$17 as we write, with the gold:silver ratio staying below 100.

Nick Frappell talks about what the EFP is and discusses how it is priced, who trades it and its impact on gold prices in ABC Bullion’s 360 Monthly Review.

Gold continued to pull back in most currencies this week, but managed to remain above US$1,700, mainly on the back of some severe USD weakness. Silver briefly touched above US$18.00 before settling down to $17.70 at time of writing

Is surging private indebtedness creating a society of debt serfs and feudal creditor lords? We explore this question and more in this week’s review of Incrementum’s In Gold We Trust report, which says that the 2020s will be a golden decade.

Platinum was flat this week at USD $835 and Palladium fell back to $1,926, with both metals seeing a profound impact from COVID on both supply and demand.

Gold moved south of USD $1,700, ever so briefly, before rebounding to $1,720 on the back of US GDP Q1 data showing a 5% contraction on an annual basis. Silver also pulled back early in the week before rebounding back above $17.40.

This week, Crispin Odey got a lot of headline coverage, when he said that gold ownership could become illegal if inflation spikes.

AUD strengthened this week to 65.6 US cents, seeing gold in AUD $50 lower than this time last week. Silver pulled back to $26.20 from recent highs above $27.

Officially unemployment only rose slight to 6.2% but we say realistically over 50% of the workforce is on government support.

We also look at trade tensions between China and Australia and how Eastern demand will boost metal prices, as well as the use of the stock market as a store of value.
 
Gold went up to $1,730 this week and the AUD remains strong at 64.5 US cents, preventing us from seeing new highs in AUD terms for now. Silver remains the metal to watch as it creeps 5% higher.

This week Harvard University professor Ken Rogoff called for deeply negative US interest rates; the market agrees with traders betting on negative US rates by early 2021. Freelance CEO said 74% of Australian workforce is now being paid by the government - we discussed how to protect yourself from the money printing necessary to pay for this.

JP Morgan says US money printing may ignite an inflation bomb. This week we also look at China's call for a new super-sovereign currency to counter the US dollar and why Scotiabank closed its bullion trading & leasing business.

Gold edged higher this week to $1,726 and silver is tracking sideways around the USD $15 per ounce level, yet to make up its mind on whether to join gold or remain uncoupled as the AUD/USD trades at 0.635 .

This week we look at the report from the Bank of America revising gold price forecast to $3,000, how Coronavirus has permanently changed investor psychology, and the role gold can play in your portfolio.

Gold advanced to $1,648 this week on US dollar weakness and silver battled with the $15 level after adding around 7% from the start of the week. The USD index retreated, putting the AUD back above 62c seeing gold for local investors pull back to $2,648 and silver $24.25. This week we look at government stimulus to pacify stressed out and scared households, and a close look at price action in silver and clues the market has bottomed.

A bit of a mixed week for the metals, with gold initially falling but recovering back above $1600 and silver to $14.56. The Aussie dropped to 60.5 cents this week helping local prices recover to trade around $2,670 for gold and just over $24 for silver. This week we ponder buy equities on government intervention, or will it be a dead cat bounce?, how much free float is there in the gold market?, and will price increases balance the market, or is gold a Giffen good?.

A good week for the metals with gold staging a recovery above $1,600 and silver outperforming to over $14.50. For Aussie investors, we saw the $A gold price reach a new high of $2,766.95 but our dollar recovering from its lows took some of the shine off local gold prices and they moderated back to $2,655 and silver just under $24. This week we look at when spot and futures price diverge by $100, what is the real price of gold, and preparing for the unforeseeable.

Stock markets have seen the most vicious sell-off since the 1987 “Black Monday” crash and the precious metals were dragged down on liquidating longs. However, with the AUD taking a beating to 62.7 cents gold in AUD terms remains only slightly lower at $2,510 and silver at $25.35.

This week we look at why has gold underperformed given the dramatic stock and bond market movements, the historic gold:silver ratio and what our clients are buying, and diversifying your super with gold.

The metals recovered this week with equity market volatility sending gold to $1,670 and silver $17.45. The Aussie dollar’s recovery cut into local price gains but gold was still up from recent lows to $2,520 and silver to $26.30.

This week we look at how gold and silver brushed off their initial sell off, a contrarian thought: monetary policy is not going to cure COVID-19, corona hitting Australian confidence, and toilet paper inventory, and only five more years and central bank gold stocks back to 1971 “Nixon shock” levels.

The US stock market finally woke up to coronavirus risk with the S&P 500 crashing 11.60% in less than a week, and gold jumping to highs of $1,687. Silver fell back this week to $17.80 given 18% of annual fabrication demand comes out of China. With the Australian dollar down over 6% this year to fresh lows at 0.656, local gold prices were a tick above $2,500 and silver at $27.10.

This week, we look at coronavirus’ impact on the Australian economy, and with other countries resorting to cash handouts, is Australia next?

Gold broke above the crucial $1,586 level this week, trading above $1,620;  silver moved above $18 into a resistance zone between $18.40 and $18.50. The Australian dollar busting down past 0.66 put a rocket booster under the metals’ Aussie prices, with gold at $2,462 and silver $28.05.

This week, we delve into how a 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio can have lost decades of returns, and the case for a Dragon Portfolio with a 19% allocation to gold.

US gold rallied to $1,577 and silver fell back to $17.66 this week. The AUD/USD was on struggle street last week, hitting an 11 year low and pushing AUD gold higher to $2,346.

This week, we look at the impact of coronavirus on global supply chains and gold demand, central banks keen on issuing their own digital currencies, and Australians overexposed to housing and over-valued equities.

The metals eased as markets accepted the official coronavirus numbers, with gold lower to $1,565 and silver to $17.80. A RBA rates hold pushed the AUD higher to 0.673 and the local gold price down to $2,326, with silver at $26.70.

This week we discuss crazy parabolic US stock prices that are disconnected from company sales/earnings, and crowd sourced gold & silver price forecasts from expert analysts with a good track record

Gold continued higher on coronavirus concerns to $1,577 with silver reaching $17.90 while also sending the AUD/USD lower to 0.671c - resulting in an all-time high AUD gold price of $2,362 (silver $27.08).

This week, we look at worrying trend down in Aussie retail sales, and what will be the economic impact of the coronavirus?

A slow and steady week for the metals with gold tracking sideways to USD$1,560, silver falling back to $17.80 and platinum pulling back to $1,000. Australian prices also steady at $2,280 and $26.05.

This week we cover what’s up with palladium?, the elites’ annual meet at “Green” Davos, central bankers’ god complex, and wealth inequality and financial market instability.

After an earlier sell-off, gold recovered back above $1,550 with silver trading just under $18. An Aussie dollar close to 0.69c gives gold and silver some stability around $2,250 and $26 respectively.

This week, we dive into five new year precious metal investment resolutions, why rhodium is up 1,187% since bottoming in mid-2016, and is there really no other alternative to stocks?

Over the holidays, the metals broke out and Iran/US tensions put a rocket under that. Gold is holding above the crucial $1,550 level with silver getting dragged along to just under $18. Aussie gold reached a high of $2,352 and is currently $2,262 with silver at $26.17.

This week we look at should you trade like George Costanza – opposite to what your instincts say?, the continuing war on cash in Greece, and China and Sweden Is the greenest gold that which is kept in the ground?

With the end of 2019 quickly approaching in this last update for the year we look back at 2019 for the events that caught our eye across the precious metals, financial markets and geopolitics.