Technical Analysis

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Good morning everyone and Happy Friday as the curtain comes down on another month (and quarter) for the year.
 
Mixed trade on Thursday saw bargain hunters lift gold and silver away from Wednesday’s post-option expiration 4-week lows (in US Dollar terms). Closer scrutiny of US President Trump’s tax reform plan also saw investor enthusiasm come off the boil to a small degree, leading to the Greenback paring some of its recent gains to the benefit of gold and silver.

Good morning everyone.
 
Gold and silver retreated on Tuesday particularly in US Dollar terms. Profit taking into the North Korean geopolitical news-triggered rally hit the metals as Europe arrived. Additionally, US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen wrested back the news cycle from North Korea by delivering a speech on “Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy” before the National Association of Business Economists in Cleveland which was perceived as hawkish (and thus bearish for precious metals values) by the markets, even though the Fed Chairman kept all policy options open.

Good morning everyone.
 
Event risk came to the fore again on Monday to cast off the weight of last week’s bearish FOMC policy statement on precious metals values and to launch gold, silver and platinum significantly higher overnight. The event risk came in the form of comments from North Korea’s foreign minister at an impromptu press conference in New York.
 
In a continuation of the verbal sparring that has transpired between North Korea and the US Administration since President Trump’s bellicose speech at the UN last week, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho stated that “The UN Charter acknowledges member states’ right of self-defence. As the United States has declared a war, even though its strategic bombers don’t cross our border, we will come to own all rights to respond for self-defence including shooting down its planes at any time." "All options are on the table for North Korean response." "The whole world should clearly remember it was the US who first declared war on our country."

Good morning everyone and happy Friday!
 
XAU/USD & XAG/USD remained under pressure as they continued to feel blowback from Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy announcement in which the US central bank signalled its intentions on interest rates and tackling its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
 
Paradoxically, Greenback strength / AUD weakness meant that gold and silver in AUD terms closed higher on the day.

Good morning everyone.
 
Precious metal values retreated after the US Federal Reserve Bank’s FOMC left interest rates unchanged (as expected) but signalled the possibility of one more rate hike in 2017 and more importantly, laid out its intentions in relation to its colossal $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
 
The US central bank intends to begin unwinding its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and MBS’s in October by initially cutting up to $10 billion per month from reinvestments. Thereafter the amount will increase by $10 billion every quarter (to a maximum of $50 billion per month) until a balance sheet reduction of at least $1 trillion has been achieved. In other words, the monetary smack that has fuelled the credit bender that the US economy has been on since the 2008 GFC is soon to be withdrawn as the central bank ‘normalises’ its money printing monetary policy and balance sheet.

Good morning everyone.

Gold and silver consolidated and tread water on Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s MonPol announcement by the US FOMC, as the markets await guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding the scope and timing of any potential paring back of the its balance sheet.

Good morning everyone.
 
Precious metals have been on the slide since the air came out of the ‘safe-haven’ trade (i.e. geopolitics) with gold in particular, hitching its caboose to a strong (inverse) correlation to the USD/JPY. Throw into the mix, record US equity market highs and rising US Treasury yields and that just about covers the reasons for the corrective action seen across the precious metals markets.

Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!
 
A tumultuous day in the markets saw gold and silver eventually close near session highs.
 
Gold and silver were driven hither and yon by;

• Disappointing Chinese economic data

• The Wild West of cryptocurrency markets with newswires carrying reports that “China may shut all local Bitcoin exchanges by Sept: YICA”

• The Bank of England keeping interest rates unchanged and hinting at the tightening of the monetary spigots in the months ahead.

• US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin commenting that: “Although we respect the Fed’s independence, we are concerned about economic growth. We’re doing everything we can -- whether it’s tax reform, whether it’s regulatory relief, whether it’s trade -- to create economic growth. And we’re less concerned about inflation at the moment."

• Reports that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea were preparing another missile launch

• The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea launching a missile at 6:57am local time, which passed over Hokkaido at 7:06am local time, and came down in the Pacific Ocean, some 2,000 KM east of Japan's Erimo Misaki.

Good morning everyone.
 
Range trading / consolidation was seen in gold for much of the Far Eastern and European sessions on Wednesday but the big move came during US trading when the wick was lit under the beleaguered Greenback (see attached USD Index chart - Daily 2 Years) and consequently gold and silver in USD terms were kicked lower.
 
The catalyst for the US Dollar move, was news filtering out from Administration officials via various outlets that a target date of September 25th had been set to lay out details pertaining to one of President Trump’s key platforms - tax reform.

Good morning everyone.
 
Not a lot to report from Tuesday’s activity in the precious metals markets with intraday speculative jockeying seeing gold drift lower during the Far Eastern session, before buying returned when Europe arrived and finally a ‘pop’ to session highs as gold was alleged to have benefited from Bitcoin getting slammed lower late in the day when newswires carried the following comments from JP Morgan’s Chairman, President and CEO, Jamie Dimon:
DIMON: BITCOIN IS A "FRAUD"; "WORSE THAN TULIP BULBS"
DIMON: BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BLOW UP
DIMON: BITCOIN WON'T END WELL
DIMON: WOULD FIRE ANY TRADER TRADING BITCOIN FOR BEING STUPID

Good morning everyone.

US equities rebounded sharply back towards recent record highs, as last week’s investor bearishness on the back of forecast apocalyptic devastation of Florida in the wake of Hurricane Irma, failed to materialise when the expected Category 5 hurricane (consistent wind speeds of 252 km/h or higher leading to catastrophic damage) made landfall closer to a Category 2 hurricane (consistent wind speeds of 154-177 km/h leading to extensive damage).

Good morning everyone and I trust you had a good weekend.

XAU/USD registered its highest level since mid-August last year as geopolitics, receding yields on US Treasuries, huge ETF demand and record trading volumes on COMEX, disastrous weather events and poor US macroeconomic data weighing upon the Greenback, all underpinned precious metals investor appetite.

Good morning everyone.
 
Gold, having reached its highest level in USD terms since late September last year on Tuesday, (spurred on by geopolitical tensions, receding yields on US Treasuries, a soft Greenback and monster inflows into ETF products. Tuesday saw a record inflow of 9.5 tons bringing to 26 tons the total amount that has been piled onto gold ETF’s since the start of September - which follows an increase of 31.4 tons globally in August), pared gains on Wednesday as President Trump dialled-down recent rhetoric towards North Korea and perhaps more importantly, in a predictably unpredictable move the US President reportedly reached an agreement with Democrat congressional leaders (thereby circumventing GOP leaders who were all opposed to the deal) to pass aid for Hurricane Harvey relief AND to extend government funding until December 15, as well as a 3-month debt limit increase. Thus, any investor uncertainty or speculation surrounding government funding and the debt ceiling was killed stone dead until December 15th.

Good morning everyone.

Some fairly brutal price action was seen on Tuesday, particularly during the offshore time zones of Europe and the US, with gold slammed lower USD 13.00 and AUD 22.00 as profit taking / long liquidation shook out some of the weaker long positions and late-to-the-party speculative longs. As noted yesterday however, given the present geopolitical climate, dips would likely be well supported as investors who missed the initial move higher were given the opportunity to “get on board”. Thus it was that gold was able to erase all of its losses on the day and surge to its highest level in USD terms since September 22nd last year by the close of trading in New York.

Good morning everyone.
 
Gold gapped approximately USD 10.00 and AUD 7.00 higher on the open in Asia yesterday, as the markets had their first opportunity to react to the news that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) had conducted its sixth (and largest to date) nuclear test, which had registered 6.3 on the Richter Scale amidst claims that the device detonated was a thermonuclear Hydrogen bomb.

After being range bound and unable to break through the key US $1,300oz level since Nov 2016, gold has staged a sharp rally overnight on the back of heightened tensioned on the Korean Peninsula.

Early on Tuesday morning Australian time, North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific waters off the northern region of Hokkaido.

Good morning,
 
Gold – as described by Andre in yesterday’s morning wrap – broke free post-Jackson Hole in hectic trading. Notably pull-backs in price pre the Jackson Hole newswires in both XAUAUD and XAUUSD held the support levels mentioned last week at A$1613 and US$1278 before rallying hard, with December open interest rising by round 1.50 million Tozs by last Friday.

Hello everyone,
 
Friday’s trading saw the markets go into a holding pattern ahead of speeches at the central bank conference in Jackson Hole by arguably the two most powerful central bankers in the world, US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen and the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

Markets traded fairly narrowly just ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, with Janet Yellen speaking – possibly for the last time – Friday morning. Observers will be keen to see whether the Fed Chair references the persistent lack of inflation, and what sort of course she will chart for the Fed towards normalisation. The Dollar index moved higher to 93.277 and 10 year yields increased slightly as uncertainty over the debt-ceiling grew. Donald Trump has been tweeting his displeasure with senior Republicans over the ‘mess’ the debt ceiling has or may become. So far, concerns still seem muted basis activity over in fixed-income.

Gold and JPY moved slightly higher as the Donald moved swiftly to correct my erroneous and unfounded report via Mitch McConnell that the debt-ceiling was safe in the hands of Congress. Apparently not – however moves were relatively well contained given that the President was addressing a rally in Phoenix, with markets discounting the impact of the message.

Good morning everyone!
 
Markets switched to ‘risk on’ with the US Dollar making a small recovery, and the USD index rallying up to the Daily Turning line at 93.54, where some resistance should be found. Equities rallied, with the S & P 500 rallying up to Standard Line resistance at 2454.

Good morning everyone,
 
Overnight US equities tested lower once again in thin conditions, as the S & P 500 tested both trend line support and support from the Daily Cloud, before recovering to close at 2,428. North Korea continues to spit warnings at the US, with ‘merciless revenge’ on the menu if the US, South Korea and Australia continue with the snappily titled ‘Ulchi Freedom Guardian’ annual war games. Despite the tensions, the USD index sank lower to trade this morning at 93.10 with the JPY remaining strong, although unable to break higher. US Treasuries continue to be well bid with yields closing at 2.19 per cent for the generic 10 year bond. This week has some major speeches from ECB President Mario Draghi and Fed Chair Janet Yellen as Jackson Hole gets underway the day after tomorrow, with Unemployment gains (expected to be 237 k) and Core Durable goods (expected to be 0.40 %) ahead on Thursday and Friday respectively.