Technical Analysis

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade date: October 3rd   
COMMENT: XAU/USD popped above the 55 Day moving average but found resistance at $1208.70 (23.6% Fib) for the second successive day, suggesting that there is some “wood to be chopped” at that level.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade date: October 2nd   
COMMENTS: While XAU/USD presently remains trapped within the broader sideways trading range between the Aug 24th low at USD 1183.20 and the Aug 28th high at USD 1214.85, from the point of view of bullish interests, the market displayed its mettle on Friday by staring down a significant break of support at the bottom end of the range which would have opened the way to lower levels.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade date: September 27th
COMMENTS: Greenback strength on Thursday drove XAU/USD down to the lower boundary of the broader sideways trading range between the Aug 24th low at USD 1183.20 and the Aug 28th high at USD 1214.85, highlighted in recent commentaries. It’s pretty much a ‘make or break’ moment for XAU/USD at this level.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade date: September 26th
COMMENTS: Choppy trade around the time of the US Federal Reserve Board’s FOMC MonPol announcement (25 basis point interest rate hike as anticipated) was seen yesterday. When all was said and done, XAU/USD remained within the now well established sideways trading range.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade date: September 25th
COMMENTS:
Featureless trade was seen yesterday within an exceptionally narrow range, as XAU/USD is in the hands of the intraday specs who continue to scalp and job around within the now well established sideways trading range, pending a breakout

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES- Trade Date: September 24th
COMMENTS: XAU/USD posted a Doji candlestick yesterday (an upper and lower shadow with virtually the same opening and closing price, signaling investor indecision at present levels), thereby affirming the stance that respecting the now well established sideways trading range and selling rallies / buying dips as appropriate remains the prudent course of action.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: September 23rd
COMMENTS: Respecting the now well established sideways trading range and selling rallies / buying dips as appropriate, continues to pay dividends as XAU/USD recoiled at its 55 Day moving average (USD 1210.50) on Friday but remained within the broader sideways trading range between the Aug 24th low at USD 1183.20 and the Aug 28th high at USD 1214.85.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: September 20th

COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS: Thursday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and the S&P Index rally to record highs, while the US Dollar Index pared recent gains and US Treasury yields hovered around 3% (with Russia and China reportedly significantly reducing their holdings of US Treasury notes in recent weeks)

Gold staged a rally from the August lows, when the weekly RSI touched 9.59, the ‘most oversold’ by that measure seen since January 1997, a mere twenty-one years ago, when Tori Amos was belting out ‘Professional Widow’, for some reason, and the weekly RSI touched 5.26. Apart from looking overdone, gold benefitted from a slight weakening of the US Dollar, with softer inflation numbers, although the ongoing trade dispute should keep the dollar steady.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: September 18th
COMMENTS: XAU/USD is presently located in a ‘no man’s land’, right in the middle of the sideways trading band between the Aug 24th low at USD 1183.20 and the Aug 28th high at USD 1214.85.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: September 17th

COMMENTS: Since bottoming on Aug 16th and recovering to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (of the 1365.40 to 1160.25 move) at USD 1208.70, XAU/USD has been consolidating within a sideways trading band between the Aug 24th low at USD 1183.20 and the Aug 28th high at USD 1214.85.

Gold plumbed the depths last week, reaching 19 month lows. The price has been driven lower by further impulsive moves higher in the USD, with the DXY (Dollar Index) breaking up through technical resistance to hit 96.98 last week.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: August 16th
COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS: Precious metals were bludgeoned lower in a wild Far Eastern session yesterday as carnage ensued on global financial markets, in part driven by fears surrounding the potential for contagion from the Turkish bond and currency market implosions of recent weeks. By the close of trading in the US however, the entirety of the day’s losses across the precious metals complex had been recouped, rewarding those investors who were brave enough to step in and buy “where angels feared to tread” and giving the entire day’s price action the look and feel of “exhaustion / capitulation” type selling.

Gold rebounds from the December low, having achieved the measured target after breaking down from the January-April double-top formation.

After some respectable bounces across the precious metals complex on Tuesday which had resulted from booksquaring ahead of the Independence Day holiday in the US on Wednesday, yesterday’s activity was expectedly curtailed and largely featureless within ranges.

Like the fictional gorilla, King Dollar remained rampant and weighed the precious metals complex down as it drove XAU/USD to its lowest level since mid-December 2017. Safe-haven buying on the back of uncertainty surrounding the impact of the US President Trump’s “trade war” policy, political brinkmanship in Germany stemming from the immigration issue (which had placed the Euro under pressure), and robust economic and sentiment data from the US have all underpinned the Greenback’s strength recently.

It would be fair to say that the eyes of the vast majority of the news-consuming world were on Singapore yesterday - June 12th- for the unprecedented and historic summit meeting between US President Trump and the Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Chairman Kim Jong-un (perhaps with the exception of the halfwits pundits at the New York Times who the US President excoriated at the end of May when he noted/Tweeted: “The Failing @nytimes quotes “a senior White House official,” who doesn’t exist, as saying “even if the meeting were reinstated, holding it on June 12 would be impossible, given the lack of time and the amount of planning needed.” WRONG AGAIN! Use real people, not phony sources.”)

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 28th

COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:
 
With market activity being heavily affected by long weekends in the UK & US, there were still some noteworthy developments on Monday pertaining to the political landscape in Italy (and its ramifications for Europe), as well a continuation of the precipitous slide in crude oil values that had commenced late last week.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 25th
 
COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:
 
Gold stalled at technical resistance levels highlighted in Friday’s commentary and pared gains to close out last week ahead of long weekends today for the significant bullion trading centres of London and New York.

COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:

• After Wednesday’s release of the somewhat ‘dovish’ FOMC minutes from its most recent meeting in May, - with the US central bank’s monetary policy committee indicating that while it intends to stick to its rate hike trajectory, it is willing to allow some levity for inflation to overshoot, - the brakes were slammed on the Greenback and US 10 Yr Treasury yields, providing gold with some respite from recent downside momentum.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 15th

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 11th

COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:
A mixed bag on Friday as the week drew to a close. Europe took XAU/USD up to technical resistance at the USD 1325/1327 region before the market rolled over when US investors arrived who erased all of Europe’s gains in what was routine intraday, speculative trade.  The overall trend for the US Dollar on Friday was lower with losses pared into the close. Crude oil markets also retreated from last week’s 3½-year highs and US equity markets after drifting lower early, closed on a firm note.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 10th
 
COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:
 
A mixed day’s trade saw the US dollar weaken, US equities strengthen, crude oil prices dip before recovering, US Treasury yields soften and the entire precious metals complex (XAU/AUD excepted) registering respectable gains.
 
 
Geopolitics remained at the forefront as Israel and Syria exchanged salvos albeit with muted market reaction. Consternation also remained surrounding the Trump Administration’s withdrawal from the ‘Iran Nuclear Deal’ earlier in the week.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 9th

COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:
The fallout continued yesterday from Tuesday’s decision by US President Trump to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aka ‘The Iran Nuclear Deal’ and to reimpose even tougher sanctions than had existed previously, ostensibly to punish Iran for alleged transgressions and to force the country into renegotiating the deal.

PRECIOUS METALS RANGES - Trade Date: May 7th
 
COMMENTS / HIGHLIGHTS:
 
A quiet start to the week with a UK Bank holiday impacting liquidity and markets holding station within ranges.

Overnight the US President Tweeted “I will be announcing my decision on the Iran Deal tomorrow (Tuesday) from the White House at 2:00pm.” (this comes ahead of the May 12th deadline for the renewal of sanctions waivers in relation to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed with Iran that was signed in 2015). President Trump is widely anticipated to abandon the deal and to reimpose sanctions upon the Islamic Republic of Iran.